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Mnangagwa's Political Survive Hangs In Balance - Mandaza

Mnangagwa's Political Survive Hangs In Balance - Mandaza

Political analyst Ibbo Mandaza says President Emmerson Mnangagwa is fighting for his political life ahead of a ZANU PF congress set for October this year.

Mandaza believes the 79-year-old ZANU PF leader ould be ousted through “political manoeuvring” rather than a military coup.

This follows claims by former ZANU PF youth league leaders Godfrey Tsenengamu and Jim Kunaka that Mnangagwa reneged on a power transfer deal with vice president Constantino Chiwenga who led the 2017 military coup that ousted Mnangagwa’s predecessor, Robert Mugabe.

After leading the 2017 coup as Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander, Chiwenga reportedly made a “gentleman’s agreement” with Mnangagwa that the latter would serve just one term and hand over power to him.

The SAPES Trust director is not sure if Mnangagwa will be ZANU PF’s candidate in the general elections due in the second half of 2023. Said Mandaza:

The utterances by Kunaka and Tsenengamu are yet another indication that all is not well in ZANU PF, that the factionalism is building to a climax ahead of the purported congress and above all that Mnangagwa’s political survival hangs in the balance.

But I rule out another coup; these appear to be political plots to outmanoeuvre Mnangagwa and force him to relent without a fight.

Mandaza said if Mnangagwa remains ZANU PF leader post-congress, Chiwenga loyalists may not help his campaign but give their votes to main opposition leader Nelson Chamisa. He said:

The bhora musango scenario appears more threatening than it did in 2008 (when Mugabe lost in the first round to opposition challenger Morgan Tsvangirai).

But that’s assuming Mnangagwa is a contender in 2023. I think it’s his (Chamisa’s) to lose, the presidential race in 2023, as things stand; but only through a broad alliance can the Citizens Coalition for Change garner a parliamentary majority.

And even after that, it would be advisable in my view to include selected ZANU PF stalwarts in the name of reconciliation and nation-building, especially after this bruising period of the last two decades that has left the country broken and divided.

Observations in some circles suggest Chamisa will need [self-exiled former ZANU PF political commissar Saviour] Kasukuwere in that broad alliance, but the selection I’m talking about should not be confined to key ZANU PF stalwarts who will have acquitted themselves in the parliamentary elections, but also Zimbabweans in the diaspora and in all cases taking cognisance of regional, ethnic representation and meritocracy.

Bhora Musango, a Shona language phrase which literally means “to deliberately kick the ball off the pitch, instead of scoring it”, was a clandestine campaign by some Zanu-PF leaders in the run-up to the 2008 harmonised elections against voting for the party’s presidential candidate leader Robert Mugabe.

More: ZimLive

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25 Comments

Thor 3 weeks ago

kuvadzanai mega ikoko takamirira kuzokusvasvangai 2023


Cde Cimba 3 weeks ago

Ibo Mandaza you are daydreaming my brother. ZANU PF creates the so called factionalism news to divert the opposition's attention. Now the hope of the opposition is to see ED being removed by ZANU PF. What a shame. What it means is that the opposition all by itself really know that they are going to be thrashed by ED come 2023. They are only hoping that if ZANU PF fields another candidate they might have a chance to beat the revolutionary party and that's not gonna happen.
All ZANU PF is doing is to keep the opposition concentrating on the revolutionary party's internal politics ignoring their own. Ndokungwara ka uko.
Come congress nothing will change in ZANU PF leadership..and come 2023 ED obva asvasvanga madzakutsaku.

T
Yours Cde Cimba vekuMhangura.


linox 3 weeks ago

hausi wakufumura here,

Da Truth 3 weeks ago

Kkkk cde vekumhangura ndanga ndisina kuona kuti munobva ku ngura that's why . apologies my brother.

dispenser 3 weeks ago

very .... President .He have to be kicked out of state House .How cld someone who think normally , with this biting poverty choose to make expensive projects wc did not benefit e masses. Yesterday he was priding himself of a new Parliament building. How is it helpful to the population wc is languishing in poverty.


Zuze 3 weeks ago

Manyarariro akaita Jenarari mazuvano haana mashuwa. Kana kumbotuka Skiridhi rabharazi vari paStrike kuMinistry yake?

Pane nyaya apo


Maveable 3 weeks ago

Ko blue aripi atiidzoo kuti zvikufamba sei


Blue 💙 3 weeks ago

Those are just mere conspiracy theories my friend. EDM will rule this land beyond 2023

Patrick 3 weeks ago

This was said in 2019 that ED was leaving in 4 months but halas we are now in 2022.I dont believe these stories anymore.....


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Bangwela 3 weeks ago

Dear brothers.
we are all visitors on this earth ED will leave soon.
yours Gods servant


Zuze 3 weeks ago

Chete anonoka kubva

WILLIAM SONBOY CHINEMBIRI 3 weeks ago

Kana ukarota nyika ino isinga tongwe ne ZANU PF, muka ubike Doro kuti hope dzabvepii idzi. Bika Doro uti mudzimu makundirasha musandipa hope dzakadai.


worried citizen 3 weeks ago

i don support zanu hangu bt this gentleman agreement i don think it existed these are jus assumptions from us povo,these guys they know each other nd lets not be conclusively about this issue


linox 3 weeks ago

ummmm ma fon anofa guys mukuda kutii apa

Zuze 3 weeks ago

Ndoziva kuti tese takabva kuChindunduma and chirungu tochida. Asi kana zvaramba kubuda wadii kushandisa rurimi rwaamai?

Apa kana musoro wenyaya ndabva ndaushaya

Mabhodho 3 weeks ago

Pamberi ne ZANU, ED pfee, Chamisa mudondo...
The actual fact CCC means Confusion Chete Chete, this party is based on hatred, lies, propaganda. Manje hamutonge you'll be languishing but chigaro ndeche ZANU till 2045


Mabhodho mhat a 3 weeks ago

Uri jend e kufa mabhodho...

Blue 💙 3 weeks ago

😊🙏

c 3 weeks ago

CCC real change


3 weeks ago


Jim Kunaka 3 weeks ago

Im no longer a ZANU member.l m just an attention seeker. Vote Jim


Tibvirepo 3 weeks ago

Ndiye Ibbo Joseph wekudya nevangezi ndokuzochinja surname after independence


Tibvirepo 3 weeks ago

Ndiye Ibbo Joseph aidya nevangezi ndokuzochinja surname after independence.


Gwedu 3 weeks ago

idzi inhema idzi, congress yavo haina value pakumubvisa. Kuda kungoita buy time uko muwana nhau


One Demus 3 weeks ago

I agree with Ibbo Mandaza's analysis.
There's a lot of strategic undercurrents going on behind closed.
I don't expect Joe Public to decipher that
Lacoste faces multiple foes on a lot if frontiers.
G40, Original Zanu PF, CCC, Zanu PF factions, Kasukuwere & et al.
I am of the humble opinion that the General is Isolated and lacks the gusto to take the bull by the horns.
He used to be brave but he lacks political dexterity.
He is a follower and not a leader, that's why he's been quiet & lying low since the coup.
He should spend more time with his new young wife.
On the other hand, Ngwena is a ruthless practical schemer who has the advantage of being on the throne.
Look at what's happening to the generals who partook in the coup.
They are either dead, dying or posted to distant lands as ambassadors.
That's strategy to me.
It left the General isolated & intellectually incapacitated.And Ngwena stronger.
Correct me if I'm wrong.



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